AL Playoff Predictions as of 8/30

Pardon the time between posts. Been tying up a few loose ends with another job. September is almost upon us and it's the month where playoff dreams are made and broken. The American League appears to be a bit less chaotic but I'll take a hack at picking who will be there in the end.

East

The Yankees and Rays are deadlocked once again with my Red Sox a solid 6.5 games back. It could've very easily been a three team race for two playoff spots but injuries pretty much ruined Boston's chances at postseason play. The Sox had their shot at catching both of their rivals and failed to do so, most recently by dropping 2 out of 3 in Tampa in a series that was winable. At one point, it looked like another surefire division title for the Yanks, but now the Rays have stated their case and it could come down to the final series of the season for both teams. Look for the Sox (or what's left of them) to play the spoiler in that final series in October.

Prediction: Rays

Central

The Twins have added some solid arms to their bullpen in acquiring lefties Brian Fuentes and Randy Flores after the non-waiver trade deadline. The only thing missing is a healthy Justin Morneau in their lineup and that may prevent them from getting past a first round opponent in October. The White Sox are on the verge of acquiring Manny Ramirez from the Dodgers, but at 4.5 games back it may be too little too late. There will be no one game playoff this year.

photo by Brian Peterson of the Associated Press

Prediction: Twins

West

Texas has pretty much run away with this division. They currently hold a 7.5 game lead on Oakland and have a deadly combination of hitting (Josh Hamilton, Vlad Guerrero and Michael Young) and pitching (Cliff Lee, Rich Harden and Neftali Feliz). I would expect them to rest a lot of their regulars down the stretch once the rosters expand tomorrow. Hopefully Ron Washington will know when to get his players back into game mode in time for the playoffs. I would some day like to see Houston added to this division so that the NL Central will no longer have six teams and the AL West would have five. Call me OCD if you like. I have nothing good to say about the rest of the AL West except that Dallas Braden threw a no-hitter and Ichiro is having one of his worst second halves ever (which isn't really a good thing for anybody, especially the Mariners).

Prediction: Rangers

Wild Card

As previously stated, the AL East and Wild Card are intertwined. At the current rate, the Rays and Yanks will most likely decide who wins what some time during the last week of the season. The Red Sox are 6.5 games back and that number will most likely continue to fluctuate but I see no feasible way that a team of rookies and backups can put together a run against two superior teams. Both Tampa and New York deserve to make the postseason up to this point and I think the Sox may spoil the Yanks' chances at their 17th division title.

Prediction: Yankees

NL Playoff Picture as of August 20th

For many teams in Major League Baseball, their records August and September usually determine whether or not they make the postseason. That being said, here's my take on who will be there in October based on the current standings in the National League Division and Wild Card Races.

East

The Braves hold a 2.5 game lead over the Phillies. Ryan Howard is set to begin a rehab assignment this weekend and reinserting him into the Philadelphia lineup will definitely give the Phillies a shot in the arm even though they have scored the second-most runs in the NL. But with the acquisition of Derrek Lee, the Braves are starting to look like one of the mid-90s editions. Their pitching has been superb, and the young talent of sluggerJason Heyward and fireballer Tommy Hanson give the team a strong nucleus to build around.

Prediction: Braves

Central

While the Cardinals have become the perennial power in the division, a new team has risen from the ashes. The Reds have a 3.5 game lead and look more legit this year than in year past. They've crashed and burned at the All-Star break a few times but they finally have put it all together with MVP candidate Joey Votto leading them in almost every offense category. Ace Aaron Harang is on the disabled list but their pitching has been paced by solid performances from Bronson Arroyo, Johnny Cueto and rookie Mike Leake. Nothing against the Cardinals, but it's time for the Big Red Machine to march back into October.

Prediction: Reds

West

The Padres are quietly the best team in the NL to this point with a .608 winning percentage. They've won 5 in a row and 9 of 10. Granted, they play in the NL West, once known as baseball's weakest division (I believe that the torch has since been past and it's a toss-up between the AL and NL Central), but they have really put together an impressive run thus far. Their bullpen is the best in baseball, hands down. There isn't much to their lineup after Adrian Gonzalez, but adding Miguel Tejada was a smart move by Jed Hoyer. They have the best team earned run average in the bigs at 3.18. I don't think there is much that the Giants can do to catch them.

Prediction: Padres

Wild Card

The Fightin Phils currently hold a 1 game lead over the Giants and are 2 up on the Cards. As much as I would love to see the Giants make it with their excellent pitching staff, the games down the stretch against their division opponents will probably knock them out of the race. The Rockies at 6 games out and the Dodgers at 7 will both try to close the gap and in doing so, beat the hell out of each other while the Padres run away with the division. That leaves the Phillies and Cards to duke it out. I think the keys to these two teams are their pitching. Doc Halladay hasn't been the lights-out ace that the Phillies thought they acquired and he'll need to be if he wants to play in October. The Cardinals know what it takes to make the postseason and Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday can lead them offensively while Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright have been one of the best 1-2 pitching combos this season.
As much as I like the Phils, I gotta give this one to the Cards based on a coin flip. It wouldn't surprise me if it takes a one game playoff to decide the Wild Card winner.

Prediction: Cardinals

There you have it. The current division leaders will make the postseason and the Cardinals will make a push at the end and defeat the Phillies in a single elimination game. We'll see how it ends. Next time I'll tackle the American League.

New Gig

So I've been invited by an old buddy to join another sports blog. To be perfectly honest, I'll probably post more over there than over here. I'm not gonna ditch this blog completely, but please follow me over at the Every Day is a Sports Day blog. Here's the link:

http://everydayisasportsday.blogspot.com/

The site should be up and running on the 23rd. Until then, I think I'll get a post in here that they can use when the site re-launches on Monday.

Back by popular demand...

Ok, so it's been over a year since my last post. Been a bit busy but since I have a minute, here's something to get you thinking. This one's for you, Auntie.

How to fix the Red Sox from now until the start of the 2011 season.

Today, Jonathan Papelbon blew his 6th save of the season and suffered his 5th loss. Both are career highs. I think we can say with 95% confidence that he's not what he was. That being said, he can no longer be the closer for the Red Sox. They missed out on their chance to trade him for a hitter this season and they will most likely lose him to free agency. This loss stings particularly badly because of a) how well John Lackey pitched and b) Papelbon entered the game with a 2 run lead and it seemed like the Sox would pick up a half game on the idle Rays. Not so.

What do we do with Papelbon?

Make him the 8th inning specialist and, since he's unofficially the closer of the future, turn the reins over to Daniel Bard in the 9th. Every series is a playoff series for this team from here on out. If they are going to make a run at a playoff spot like they always do, that needs to be the mentality. There is no excuse for these kinds of losses any more.

But it doesn't stop there.

JD Drew has been absolutely useless against left-handed pitching this season with an average somewhere near .170 (I don't remember the exact number). Why does he play against lefties ever? I'd rather see Ryan Kalish out there fighting for a roster spot next season than Nancy Drew strike out with the prettiest swing on a pitch low and outside that you'll ever see. Memo to Tito: Don't play Drew against lefties.

The next thing I'll say, get well soon Pedey (should be back on Tuesday) and Youk (who's done for the season). This team can't get it done without at least one of them.

Do I think the Sox make the playoffs? Probably not but it'll be another wild ride and fans will still go to Fenway and watch them on tv for the next two months.

Now for the offseason.

After Papelbon, Bill Hall, Adrian Beltre and Darnell McDonald leave via free agency and Mike Lowell retires, there are plenty of moves to make. The first is to sign David Ortiz to a 2-year deal with a team option for a third year. He was an All-Star designated hitter this year and even though his average has taken a nosedive hitting into that shift every game, he's still good for 25+ homers and 80-100 rbi's a season. Not to mention everyone loves him. Next up, Adrian Gonzalez. The power-hitting first baseman from San Diego. This team needs another big bat in the lineup to complement Youk, Pedey, Papi and VMart. There is no legitimate power threat that strikes fear into the hearts of opponents in this 2010 Red Sox lineup. Theo and Co. need to sign this guy for 6 years and big money and it should make up for the Mark Teixeira blunder. The final move to improve the offense is to re-sign Victor Martinez to a big deal. Perhaps 4 years since he's 32 and can play catcher, first and DH. Whatever it takes, keep him here. There is no way this team can survive with Dusty Brown/Kevin Cash and Saltalamacchia as the catching platoon next year (assuming that Jason Varitek retires and becomes a coach for the Red Sox).

Finally, shore up the bullpen. Keep Felix Dubrount up with the big boys next season. Use him in the 7th or 8th. Bard is your new closer. Keep a short leash on Hideki Okajima and if he doesn't become a reliable reliever, trade him or designate him for assignment. Keep Wakefield in the pen. Go aggressively after the following free agent relievers:

Brian Fuentes
Rafael Soriano
Aaron Heilman
Will Ohman
Scott Downs

Personally, I'd want Fuentes, Soriano and Downs in that order. Both Fuentes and Soriano can close (instead of Bard) and Downs is the lefty that the Sox coveted at the trade deadline but Toronto set the price too steep for the Sox. If half of what I've proposed happens, I'd be ok with it. For now, we'll see where the season takes this team.