AL Playoff Predictions as of 8/30

Pardon the time between posts. Been tying up a few loose ends with another job. September is almost upon us and it's the month where playoff dreams are made and broken. The American League appears to be a bit less chaotic but I'll take a hack at picking who will be there in the end.

East

The Yankees and Rays are deadlocked once again with my Red Sox a solid 6.5 games back. It could've very easily been a three team race for two playoff spots but injuries pretty much ruined Boston's chances at postseason play. The Sox had their shot at catching both of their rivals and failed to do so, most recently by dropping 2 out of 3 in Tampa in a series that was winable. At one point, it looked like another surefire division title for the Yanks, but now the Rays have stated their case and it could come down to the final series of the season for both teams. Look for the Sox (or what's left of them) to play the spoiler in that final series in October.

Prediction: Rays

Central

The Twins have added some solid arms to their bullpen in acquiring lefties Brian Fuentes and Randy Flores after the non-waiver trade deadline. The only thing missing is a healthy Justin Morneau in their lineup and that may prevent them from getting past a first round opponent in October. The White Sox are on the verge of acquiring Manny Ramirez from the Dodgers, but at 4.5 games back it may be too little too late. There will be no one game playoff this year.

photo by Brian Peterson of the Associated Press

Prediction: Twins

West

Texas has pretty much run away with this division. They currently hold a 7.5 game lead on Oakland and have a deadly combination of hitting (Josh Hamilton, Vlad Guerrero and Michael Young) and pitching (Cliff Lee, Rich Harden and Neftali Feliz). I would expect them to rest a lot of their regulars down the stretch once the rosters expand tomorrow. Hopefully Ron Washington will know when to get his players back into game mode in time for the playoffs. I would some day like to see Houston added to this division so that the NL Central will no longer have six teams and the AL West would have five. Call me OCD if you like. I have nothing good to say about the rest of the AL West except that Dallas Braden threw a no-hitter and Ichiro is having one of his worst second halves ever (which isn't really a good thing for anybody, especially the Mariners).

Prediction: Rangers

Wild Card

As previously stated, the AL East and Wild Card are intertwined. At the current rate, the Rays and Yanks will most likely decide who wins what some time during the last week of the season. The Red Sox are 6.5 games back and that number will most likely continue to fluctuate but I see no feasible way that a team of rookies and backups can put together a run against two superior teams. Both Tampa and New York deserve to make the postseason up to this point and I think the Sox may spoil the Yanks' chances at their 17th division title.

Prediction: Yankees

NL Playoff Picture as of August 20th

For many teams in Major League Baseball, their records August and September usually determine whether or not they make the postseason. That being said, here's my take on who will be there in October based on the current standings in the National League Division and Wild Card Races.

East

The Braves hold a 2.5 game lead over the Phillies. Ryan Howard is set to begin a rehab assignment this weekend and reinserting him into the Philadelphia lineup will definitely give the Phillies a shot in the arm even though they have scored the second-most runs in the NL. But with the acquisition of Derrek Lee, the Braves are starting to look like one of the mid-90s editions. Their pitching has been superb, and the young talent of sluggerJason Heyward and fireballer Tommy Hanson give the team a strong nucleus to build around.

Prediction: Braves

Central

While the Cardinals have become the perennial power in the division, a new team has risen from the ashes. The Reds have a 3.5 game lead and look more legit this year than in year past. They've crashed and burned at the All-Star break a few times but they finally have put it all together with MVP candidate Joey Votto leading them in almost every offense category. Ace Aaron Harang is on the disabled list but their pitching has been paced by solid performances from Bronson Arroyo, Johnny Cueto and rookie Mike Leake. Nothing against the Cardinals, but it's time for the Big Red Machine to march back into October.

Prediction: Reds

West

The Padres are quietly the best team in the NL to this point with a .608 winning percentage. They've won 5 in a row and 9 of 10. Granted, they play in the NL West, once known as baseball's weakest division (I believe that the torch has since been past and it's a toss-up between the AL and NL Central), but they have really put together an impressive run thus far. Their bullpen is the best in baseball, hands down. There isn't much to their lineup after Adrian Gonzalez, but adding Miguel Tejada was a smart move by Jed Hoyer. They have the best team earned run average in the bigs at 3.18. I don't think there is much that the Giants can do to catch them.

Prediction: Padres

Wild Card

The Fightin Phils currently hold a 1 game lead over the Giants and are 2 up on the Cards. As much as I would love to see the Giants make it with their excellent pitching staff, the games down the stretch against their division opponents will probably knock them out of the race. The Rockies at 6 games out and the Dodgers at 7 will both try to close the gap and in doing so, beat the hell out of each other while the Padres run away with the division. That leaves the Phillies and Cards to duke it out. I think the keys to these two teams are their pitching. Doc Halladay hasn't been the lights-out ace that the Phillies thought they acquired and he'll need to be if he wants to play in October. The Cardinals know what it takes to make the postseason and Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday can lead them offensively while Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright have been one of the best 1-2 pitching combos this season.
As much as I like the Phils, I gotta give this one to the Cards based on a coin flip. It wouldn't surprise me if it takes a one game playoff to decide the Wild Card winner.

Prediction: Cardinals

There you have it. The current division leaders will make the postseason and the Cardinals will make a push at the end and defeat the Phillies in a single elimination game. We'll see how it ends. Next time I'll tackle the American League.

New Gig

So I've been invited by an old buddy to join another sports blog. To be perfectly honest, I'll probably post more over there than over here. I'm not gonna ditch this blog completely, but please follow me over at the Every Day is a Sports Day blog. Here's the link:

http://everydayisasportsday.blogspot.com/

The site should be up and running on the 23rd. Until then, I think I'll get a post in here that they can use when the site re-launches on Monday.

Back by popular demand...

Ok, so it's been over a year since my last post. Been a bit busy but since I have a minute, here's something to get you thinking. This one's for you, Auntie.

How to fix the Red Sox from now until the start of the 2011 season.

Today, Jonathan Papelbon blew his 6th save of the season and suffered his 5th loss. Both are career highs. I think we can say with 95% confidence that he's not what he was. That being said, he can no longer be the closer for the Red Sox. They missed out on their chance to trade him for a hitter this season and they will most likely lose him to free agency. This loss stings particularly badly because of a) how well John Lackey pitched and b) Papelbon entered the game with a 2 run lead and it seemed like the Sox would pick up a half game on the idle Rays. Not so.

What do we do with Papelbon?

Make him the 8th inning specialist and, since he's unofficially the closer of the future, turn the reins over to Daniel Bard in the 9th. Every series is a playoff series for this team from here on out. If they are going to make a run at a playoff spot like they always do, that needs to be the mentality. There is no excuse for these kinds of losses any more.

But it doesn't stop there.

JD Drew has been absolutely useless against left-handed pitching this season with an average somewhere near .170 (I don't remember the exact number). Why does he play against lefties ever? I'd rather see Ryan Kalish out there fighting for a roster spot next season than Nancy Drew strike out with the prettiest swing on a pitch low and outside that you'll ever see. Memo to Tito: Don't play Drew against lefties.

The next thing I'll say, get well soon Pedey (should be back on Tuesday) and Youk (who's done for the season). This team can't get it done without at least one of them.

Do I think the Sox make the playoffs? Probably not but it'll be another wild ride and fans will still go to Fenway and watch them on tv for the next two months.

Now for the offseason.

After Papelbon, Bill Hall, Adrian Beltre and Darnell McDonald leave via free agency and Mike Lowell retires, there are plenty of moves to make. The first is to sign David Ortiz to a 2-year deal with a team option for a third year. He was an All-Star designated hitter this year and even though his average has taken a nosedive hitting into that shift every game, he's still good for 25+ homers and 80-100 rbi's a season. Not to mention everyone loves him. Next up, Adrian Gonzalez. The power-hitting first baseman from San Diego. This team needs another big bat in the lineup to complement Youk, Pedey, Papi and VMart. There is no legitimate power threat that strikes fear into the hearts of opponents in this 2010 Red Sox lineup. Theo and Co. need to sign this guy for 6 years and big money and it should make up for the Mark Teixeira blunder. The final move to improve the offense is to re-sign Victor Martinez to a big deal. Perhaps 4 years since he's 32 and can play catcher, first and DH. Whatever it takes, keep him here. There is no way this team can survive with Dusty Brown/Kevin Cash and Saltalamacchia as the catching platoon next year (assuming that Jason Varitek retires and becomes a coach for the Red Sox).

Finally, shore up the bullpen. Keep Felix Dubrount up with the big boys next season. Use him in the 7th or 8th. Bard is your new closer. Keep a short leash on Hideki Okajima and if he doesn't become a reliable reliever, trade him or designate him for assignment. Keep Wakefield in the pen. Go aggressively after the following free agent relievers:

Brian Fuentes
Rafael Soriano
Aaron Heilman
Will Ohman
Scott Downs

Personally, I'd want Fuentes, Soriano and Downs in that order. Both Fuentes and Soriano can close (instead of Bard) and Downs is the lefty that the Sox coveted at the trade deadline but Toronto set the price too steep for the Sox. If half of what I've proposed happens, I'd be ok with it. For now, we'll see where the season takes this team.

What Could've Been

I love reading reports about trades that could've happened.

Thanks to the Globe's Chad Finn, I now hate the general manager of the Seattle Mariners. In an apparent stroke of genius to try and shore up the starting pitching, Theo Epstein attempted to pull off the mother of all trades before the 4 p.m. deadline on Friday. Word on the street is the Sox attempted to acquire both Adrian Gonzalez of the Padres and Felix Hernandez of the M's at some point prior to the deadline. The ended up with Plan B--Victor Martinez--who by the way had five hits in yesterday's shellacking of the Orioles. According to Finn, who heard it from some guy in Seattle, the Sox offered the Mariners a choice of five of the following eight prospects:

RHP Clay Buchholz
RHP Daniel Bard
RHP Justin Masterson
LHP Nick Hagadone
RHP Michael Bowden
LHP Felix Doubront
OF Josh Reddick
SS Yamaico Navarro

So much for Daniel Bard being untouchable. On the other hand, to land either Gonzalez or Hernandez, I'd say that giving him up would most likely be the only way to acquire them. The loss of Bard would set the bullpen back a bit since they swapped Masterson (along with Hagadone and Price) for V-Mart but you've got to give something up to get something back. Hernandez is a top-notch talent at a measly $3.8 million. To have landed him and V-Mart would've made Boston that much more dangerous for the stretch run, especially with series against Tampa Bay and the Yankees this week.

When that first offer was turned down (holy crap, I would've just taken any of the top 5 and Reddick--that kid has a cannon for an arm), Theo tried AGAIN. This time, he brought San Diego into the mix and tried to get them to send Gonzalez to Seattle with Buchholz prospects from Boston and San Diego. San Diego would get probably 5-7 prospects total from the Sox and M's and the local nine would end up with Hernandez.

Crazy, no? A three-way blockbuster deal that could've happened. Apparently it wouldn't have immediately benefited the Mariners. Had Theo not traded for V-Mart, it's quite possible that Seattle could have received Masterson and Buchholz--both are major league pitchers. Now I hate Seattle management and I hope that somewhere they're kicking themselves for not pulling the trigger on this one.

MLB Trade Deadline

So the Sox got the bat they needed in Victor Martinez. He's no Manny, but he's from Cleveland and can play catcher, first base and DH. He could be the Sox' solution for when Jason Varitek finally keels over with broken knees and back problems. Apparently Josh Beckett expressed concern for his backstop during his last outing on Monday when he was surprised that 'Tek even made the start because of neck pain. I like George Kottaras, but a double every five at-bats is not enough to produce runs in this lineup. Nick Green has become an easy out and so has his look-alike, Jason Bay. As soon as V-Mart arrives, he'll be inserted into the clean-up spot and Bay will hit fifth (at least that's what I'd do). Also, Nick Green, please take about 100 grounders before each game that you start from here on out.

Things just never seem to work for JD Drew. As soon as he starts looking good at the plate, he ends up missing a game due to injury. I hate his contract but with that swing, nobody looks better striking out in the league. His swing is so smooth that sometimes I forget that he strikes out...oh wait...no I don't.

The other deal that Theo made yesterday was flipping Adam Laroche for Casey Kotchman. If I remember correctly, Kotchman hits well in Fenway but I think that Epstein just did the boys in Atlanta a favor. The Sox now have too many first basemen but a bit more versatility when it comes to switching guys around. I believe that this move was made as insurance for Mike Lowell. It's almost painful how slow that hip surgery has made him and if he can't get the bat going, Youk will finish the majority of the games at third base with Kotchman/V-Mart platooning at first and Papi and 'Tek inserted in as needed. Lowell will also see more time as a DH simply because he can't move.

Lastly, my thoughts on the whole Papi using steroids allegations. In 2003 there were no rules against using steroids! Steroids saved baseball. How? Two men named Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa decided to shoot up and hit a ton of home runs in 1998. Four years prior in 1994, baseball saw some bad times and didn't have a postseason or World Series. The quest to break the all-time home run record of 61 set by former Yankee Roger Maris was one that had eluded some of baseballs most prolific home run hitters. McGwire's chase of and eventual breaking of the record got America watching the game again and put baseball back on top as our national pastime. Point being, everyone did steroids back then; it's just a shame that the Red Sox' first World Series in 86 years was most likely aided by the use of performance enhancing drugs. Then again, it seems a bit unnatural to see a dropoff from 54 dingers in 2006 to 35 in '07, to 23 in '08...to be on pace for probably less than that this season. I'm just sayin'...I saw it coming.

B's Development Camp Thoughts

Summer is supposed to be about baseball, right? Well, mostly.

While there are no actual NHL games happening in these rainy, hot Massachusetts summer months, the Bruins held their third annual prospect development camp at the team's training center in Wilmington, MA. Ristuccia arena was alive again with young guys aged 18-24 carving the ice and firing pucks on net. Boston.com's Chris Forsberg was kind enough to take some video of a scrimmage featuring my classmate, local guy and former BU Terrier Jason Lawrence, who was invited to the camp after the B's signed him last season. He sat on the bench in Providence during their Calder Cup run but projects to make the roster and find his name on the score sheet this season.

Check out video of J-Lo donning number 83 at camp here:

http://www.boston.com/sports/hockey/bruins/extras/bruins_blog/2009/07/video_scrimmage.html

Lawrence is the first Terrier in a while to get a legitimate look by the Bruins. I think the last Icedog to play for the B's was Carl Corazzini but since then, the Bruins have tapped BU's rival up Commonwealth Avenue for talent with names like Andrew Alberts, Brock Bradford, Chris Collins and Tommy Cross. Blueliner Kevin Schaefer is the most recent BU product to appear in the B's pipeline but he hasn't cracked the Boston lineup and isn't on the roster at development camp. I expect him to be at training camp looking to earn more minutes in Providence this season. Maybe we'll have a few throwback power play goals potted by J-Lo with helpers from Schaefer.


The Globe's Fluto Shinzawa reported that 2007 first-round pick Zach Hamill was leading the stretching and looked good on the ice. I expect him to have a breakout year down in Providence as long as he can stay healthy and play the whole season. Last year, a broken thumb sidelined him and definitely hindered his progress. I hope to catch some of B's 2008 first-rounder Joe Colborne on tv this year as he enters his sophomore season at Denver. One thing I'll look for is whether or not he battles in the corners for the puck which was another one of Fluto's points.

One last thing. I have no idea why the Bruins signed Steve Begin. I've heard some journalists analyze it as Begin coming in to replace Stephane Yelle, but I figured Vladimir Sobotka was a virtual lock to make the team this year. Perhaps it was just for depth since Krejci and Kessel won't be good for opening day, but I thought that they gritty tough guy role had been filled by Shawn Thornton with Byron Bitz possibly stepping up and having more of a fighting role this season as well. Here's my new opening day lineup prediction:

Sturm-Savard-Lucic
Ryder-Bergeron-Wheeler
Axelsson-Begin-Kobasew
Sobotka-Bitz-Thornton (Marchand)

Chara-Wideman
Ference-Hunwick
Stuart-Boychuk (Ward)

Thomas
Rask

The B's will sign Phil Kessel and bring back P.J. Axelsson. You heard it here first (well, about P.J. anyway).

I'm also anxiously awaiting Wednesday's official announcement of the Winter Classic to be played at Fenway against the hated Flyers and the college showcase game featuring the 2009 NCAA National Champions vs. the 2008 NCAA National Champions, or BU vs. BC.