AL Playoff Predictions as of 8/30

Pardon the time between posts. Been tying up a few loose ends with another job. September is almost upon us and it's the month where playoff dreams are made and broken. The American League appears to be a bit less chaotic but I'll take a hack at picking who will be there in the end.

East

The Yankees and Rays are deadlocked once again with my Red Sox a solid 6.5 games back. It could've very easily been a three team race for two playoff spots but injuries pretty much ruined Boston's chances at postseason play. The Sox had their shot at catching both of their rivals and failed to do so, most recently by dropping 2 out of 3 in Tampa in a series that was winable. At one point, it looked like another surefire division title for the Yanks, but now the Rays have stated their case and it could come down to the final series of the season for both teams. Look for the Sox (or what's left of them) to play the spoiler in that final series in October.

Prediction: Rays

Central

The Twins have added some solid arms to their bullpen in acquiring lefties Brian Fuentes and Randy Flores after the non-waiver trade deadline. The only thing missing is a healthy Justin Morneau in their lineup and that may prevent them from getting past a first round opponent in October. The White Sox are on the verge of acquiring Manny Ramirez from the Dodgers, but at 4.5 games back it may be too little too late. There will be no one game playoff this year.

photo by Brian Peterson of the Associated Press

Prediction: Twins

West

Texas has pretty much run away with this division. They currently hold a 7.5 game lead on Oakland and have a deadly combination of hitting (Josh Hamilton, Vlad Guerrero and Michael Young) and pitching (Cliff Lee, Rich Harden and Neftali Feliz). I would expect them to rest a lot of their regulars down the stretch once the rosters expand tomorrow. Hopefully Ron Washington will know when to get his players back into game mode in time for the playoffs. I would some day like to see Houston added to this division so that the NL Central will no longer have six teams and the AL West would have five. Call me OCD if you like. I have nothing good to say about the rest of the AL West except that Dallas Braden threw a no-hitter and Ichiro is having one of his worst second halves ever (which isn't really a good thing for anybody, especially the Mariners).

Prediction: Rangers

Wild Card

As previously stated, the AL East and Wild Card are intertwined. At the current rate, the Rays and Yanks will most likely decide who wins what some time during the last week of the season. The Red Sox are 6.5 games back and that number will most likely continue to fluctuate but I see no feasible way that a team of rookies and backups can put together a run against two superior teams. Both Tampa and New York deserve to make the postseason up to this point and I think the Sox may spoil the Yanks' chances at their 17th division title.

Prediction: Yankees

MLB Trade Deadline

So the Sox got the bat they needed in Victor Martinez. He's no Manny, but he's from Cleveland and can play catcher, first base and DH. He could be the Sox' solution for when Jason Varitek finally keels over with broken knees and back problems. Apparently Josh Beckett expressed concern for his backstop during his last outing on Monday when he was surprised that 'Tek even made the start because of neck pain. I like George Kottaras, but a double every five at-bats is not enough to produce runs in this lineup. Nick Green has become an easy out and so has his look-alike, Jason Bay. As soon as V-Mart arrives, he'll be inserted into the clean-up spot and Bay will hit fifth (at least that's what I'd do). Also, Nick Green, please take about 100 grounders before each game that you start from here on out.

Things just never seem to work for JD Drew. As soon as he starts looking good at the plate, he ends up missing a game due to injury. I hate his contract but with that swing, nobody looks better striking out in the league. His swing is so smooth that sometimes I forget that he strikes out...oh wait...no I don't.

The other deal that Theo made yesterday was flipping Adam Laroche for Casey Kotchman. If I remember correctly, Kotchman hits well in Fenway but I think that Epstein just did the boys in Atlanta a favor. The Sox now have too many first basemen but a bit more versatility when it comes to switching guys around. I believe that this move was made as insurance for Mike Lowell. It's almost painful how slow that hip surgery has made him and if he can't get the bat going, Youk will finish the majority of the games at third base with Kotchman/V-Mart platooning at first and Papi and 'Tek inserted in as needed. Lowell will also see more time as a DH simply because he can't move.

Lastly, my thoughts on the whole Papi using steroids allegations. In 2003 there were no rules against using steroids! Steroids saved baseball. How? Two men named Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa decided to shoot up and hit a ton of home runs in 1998. Four years prior in 1994, baseball saw some bad times and didn't have a postseason or World Series. The quest to break the all-time home run record of 61 set by former Yankee Roger Maris was one that had eluded some of baseballs most prolific home run hitters. McGwire's chase of and eventual breaking of the record got America watching the game again and put baseball back on top as our national pastime. Point being, everyone did steroids back then; it's just a shame that the Red Sox' first World Series in 86 years was most likely aided by the use of performance enhancing drugs. Then again, it seems a bit unnatural to see a dropoff from 54 dingers in 2006 to 35 in '07, to 23 in '08...to be on pace for probably less than that this season. I'm just sayin'...I saw it coming.